The Iconoclastic Investor

To make better than average money in the stock market you have to do something different from the average investor. You have to be an iconoclast--thinking independently and finding the approaches that work for you, not blindly following someone else's program. In this blog I'm refining my own iconoclastic and eclectic ways of thinking. I'm not trying to convert anyone to my opinions or methods--I just hope to provide a useful perspective and inspire some other investors' thinking.

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Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States

Monday, May 15, 2006

Alternative Energy Sector Run Down

One of the more obvious mega-trends I've been investing in for several years is the rise of alternative energy. This hardly counts as a novel investing idea, so investing in this sector means wild swings of hype and despair, all closely reported by the financial press, with the Motley Fool chortling at every downturn. In spite of the Motley Fool's disdain, I'm certain that some companies are going to make a lot of money with alternatives to petroleum. Maybe my optimism is misplaced, but I'm trying to make some money for myself in the process. And my impulse to so-called "socially responsible investing" leads me to try harder in this sector than other wildly volatile sectors, such as the Internet.

Socially responsible investing is a topic for another day, but for now I'll note that this sector is correlated to both oil prices and the technology sector, so both falling at once is a double blow. I had fairly tight stops get hit on Sunpower (SPWR) and Suntech Power (STP) today . My third solar-engery holding, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) has a loose stop on it and is in danger. I have taken profits in Evergreen Solar as it's moved down from $17.50 to under $12. This has been a long-term holding that I'm loath to completely sell, for sentimental as well as tax reasons, but its uptrend has totally fallen apart.

I was also stopped out on a closed-end fund, Central European Equity. This has become an oil proxy because of its holdings of Russian oil stocks.

For some reason the stocks of electrical products manufacturers have been hot lately. For example, A.O. Smith (motors and water heaters) more than doubled between September and April. This is normally a dull industry, and I have no idea what caused this run-up. The stocks are fading now, and I was stopped out of Regal-Beloit (RBC) (motors, generators, and controls) today.

1 Comments:

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